Puff Cast
ML-enhanced wind forecasts for Chesapeake Bay
Updated: Apr 12, 5:34 AMHRRR init: 4 AMRefreshed hourly
Current conditions
Annapolis
2 kt4 AM
Thomas Point Light
0 kt5 AM
Solomons Island
2 kt4 AM
Cambridge
3 kt4 AM
Next forecast per station
| Station | Next hour | T-24h | T-18h | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annapolis APAM2 | Today 6 AM in 0h | · | 3 11 | 5 13 | 4 7 | 5 6 | · |
Thomas Point Light TPLM2 | Today 6 AM in 0h | · | 6 10 | 7 13 | 6 8 | 4 4 | · |
Solomons Island SLIM2 | Today 6 AM in 0h | · | 5 7 | 4 5 | 4 4 | 3 3 | · |
Cambridge CAMM2 | Today 6 AM in 0h | · | 5 6 | 7 5 | 4 3 | 4 1 | · |
▶Annapolis
full 24-hour detailAPAM2
Annapolis
full 24-hour detailEach row is a future hour. Columns show predictions made that far ahead — cells fill in right‑to‑left as the hour approaches.
| Hour | T-24h | T-18h | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Today 6 AM in 0h | · | 3 11 | 5 13 | 4 7 | 5 6 | · |
Today 7 AM in 1h | · | 5 14 | · | 5 9 | 5 7 | · |
Today 8 AM in 2h | · | 5 12 | · | 6 8 | · | |
Today 9 AM in 3h | · | 5 11 | · | 6 9 | · | |
Today 10 AM in 4h | · | 5 8 | 6 9 | 6 6 | ||
Today 11 AM in 5h | · | 5 5 | · | · | ||
Today 12 PM in 6h | · | 4 4 | 7 6 | · | ||
Today 1 PM in 7h | · | · | 6 5 | |||
Today 2 PM in 8h | 4 10 | · | 6 7 | |||
Today 3 PM in 9h | · | · | 7 10 | |||
Today 4 PM in 10h | · | 6 12 | 6 11 | |||
Today 5 PM in 11h | · | · | · | |||
Today 6 PM in 12h | · | 6 15 | · | |||
Today 7 PM in 13h | · | 5 14 | ||||
Today 8 PM in 14h | · | 5 13 | ||||
Today 9 PM in 15h | · | 5 13 | ||||
Today 10 PM in 16h | · | 5 13 | ||||
Today 11 PM in 17h | · | · | ||||
Tomorrow 12 AM in 18h | · | · | ||||
Tomorrow 1 AM in 19h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 2 AM in 20h | 2 13 | |||||
Tomorrow 3 AM in 21h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 4 AM in 22h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 5 AM in 23h | · |
Past hours — what we predicted vs what actually happened
| Hour | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today 4 AM | 5 +2.3 | 4 +1.3 | 5 +2.8 | 3 +0.7 | 2 |
| Today 3 AM | 4 +1.7 | 3 +0.7 | 4 +2.1 | 3 +0.7 | 2 |
| Today 2 AM | 4 +1.0 | 4 +1.1 | · | 3 0.0 | 3 |
| Today 1 AM | 3 +0.9 | · | 3 +1.0 | 2 +0.2 | 2 |
| Today 12 AM | 3 +2.5 | 3 +2.4 | 4 +3.0 | · | 1 |
| Sat 11 PM | 4 +2.1 | 3 +1.6 | 3 +1.8 | 3 +1.3 | 1 |
| Sat 10 PM | · | 3 +1.5 | · | 2 +0.9 | 2 |
| Sat 9 PM | · | 3 +1.7 | 5 +3.4 | 2 +0.7 | 2 |
| Sat 8 PM | · | 4 +2.2 | 5 +3.9 | · | 1 |
| Sat 7 PM | · | 5 +1.4 | 5 +1.9 | 5 +1.9 | 3 |
| Sat 6 PM | · | 6 +1.1 | 6 +1.1 | 6 +1.0 | 5 |
| Sat 5 PM | · | 7 -0.3 | 6 -0.6 | 7 -0.3 | 7 |
▶Thomas Point Light
full 24-hour detailTPLM2
Thomas Point Light
full 24-hour detailEach row is a future hour. Columns show predictions made that far ahead — cells fill in right‑to‑left as the hour approaches.
| Hour | T-24h | T-18h | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Today 6 AM in 0h | · | 6 10 | 7 13 | 6 8 | 4 4 | · |
Today 7 AM in 1h | · | 5 13 | · | 7 9 | 4 5 | · |
Today 8 AM in 2h | · | 5 13 | · | 8 9 | · | |
Today 9 AM in 3h | · | 6 12 | · | 9 10 | · | |
Today 10 AM in 4h | · | 5 7 | 11 9 | 8 6 | ||
Today 11 AM in 5h | · | 5 5 | · | · | ||
Today 12 PM in 6h | · | 5 3 | 9 5 | · | ||
Today 1 PM in 7h | · | · | 10 6 | |||
Today 2 PM in 8h | 6 9 | · | 10 8 | |||
Today 3 PM in 9h | · | · | 11 9 | |||
Today 4 PM in 10h | · | 5 14 | 10 12 | |||
Today 5 PM in 11h | · | · | · | |||
Today 6 PM in 12h | · | 7 17 | · | |||
Today 7 PM in 13h | · | 7 16 | ||||
Today 8 PM in 14h | · | 8 15 | ||||
Today 9 PM in 15h | · | 8 15 | ||||
Today 10 PM in 16h | · | 9 15 | ||||
Today 11 PM in 17h | · | · | ||||
Tomorrow 12 AM in 18h | · | · | ||||
Tomorrow 1 AM in 19h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 2 AM in 20h | 6 19 | |||||
Tomorrow 3 AM in 21h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 4 AM in 22h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 5 AM in 23h | · |
Past hours — what we predicted vs what actually happened
| Hour | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today 5 AM | 7 +7.2 | · | 4 +3.8 | 5 +5.4 | 0 |
| Today 4 AM | 7 +1.5 | 7 +1.7 | 4 -1.2 | 4 -1.3 | 5 |
| Today 3 AM | 7 +3.7 | 6 +3.0 | 4 +1.2 | 5 +2.5 | 3 |
| Today 2 AM | 7 +0.6 | 6 +0.2 | · | 3 -3.0 | 6 |
| Today 1 AM | 6 +6.4 | · | 5 +4.6 | 5 +5.1 | 0 |
| Today 12 AM | 7 +1.6 | 7 +1.7 | 5 -0.3 | · | 5 |
| Sat 11 PM | 7 +6.7 | 5 +5.2 | 5 +4.7 | 4 +3.6 | 0 |
| Sat 10 PM | · | 6 +1.9 | · | 5 +1.3 | 4 |
| Sat 9 PM | · | 7 -0.1 | 6 -1.2 | 3 -4.1 | 7 |
| Sat 8 PM | · | 6 +4.0 | 4 +2.3 | · | 2 |
| Sat 7 PM | · | 8 +1.1 | 6 -1.1 | 8 +0.9 | 7 |
| Sat 6 PM | · | 9 -3.1 | 8 -4.4 | 7 -4.7 | 12 |
▶Solomons Island
full 24-hour detailSLIM2
Solomons Island
full 24-hour detailEach row is a future hour. Columns show predictions made that far ahead — cells fill in right‑to‑left as the hour approaches.
| Hour | T-24h | T-18h | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Today 6 AM in 0h | · | 5 7 | 4 5 | 4 4 | 3 3 | · |
Today 7 AM in 1h | · | 5 3 | · | 6 5 | 2 4 | · |
Today 8 AM in 2h | · | 7 9 | · | 7 5 | · | |
Today 9 AM in 3h | · | 8 8 | · | 6 5 | · | |
Today 10 AM in 4h | · | 6 6 | 9 8 | 7 5 | ||
Today 11 AM in 5h | · | 6 7 | · | · | ||
Today 12 PM in 6h | · | 6 6 | 10 8 | · | ||
Today 1 PM in 7h | · | · | 10 9 | |||
Today 2 PM in 8h | 10 12 | · | 12 9 | |||
Today 3 PM in 9h | · | · | 12 11 | |||
Today 4 PM in 10h | · | 8 12 | 13 11 | |||
Today 5 PM in 11h | · | · | · | |||
Today 6 PM in 12h | · | 9 12 | · | |||
Today 7 PM in 13h | · | 9 11 | ||||
Today 8 PM in 14h | · | 9 10 | ||||
Today 9 PM in 15h | · | 8 10 | ||||
Today 10 PM in 16h | · | 8 10 | ||||
Today 11 PM in 17h | · | · | ||||
Tomorrow 12 AM in 18h | · | · | ||||
Tomorrow 1 AM in 19h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 2 AM in 20h | 10 6 | |||||
Tomorrow 3 AM in 21h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 4 AM in 22h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 5 AM in 23h | · |
Past hours — what we predicted vs what actually happened
| Hour | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today 4 AM | 4 +1.9 | 4 +1.7 | 2 +0.3 | 3 +0.7 | 2 |
| Today 3 AM | 4 +1.6 | 4 +1.5 | 4 +2.2 | 3 +0.6 | 2 |
| Today 2 AM | 2 +0.8 | 2 +0.1 | · | 3 +1.0 | 2 |
| Today 1 AM | 3 +1.7 | · | 3 +1.9 | 5 +3.5 | 1 |
| Today 12 AM | 5 +1.8 | 4 +0.6 | 3 -0.5 | · | 4 |
| Sat 11 PM | 6 -1.9 | 5 -2.8 | 4 -3.9 | 4 -3.8 | 8 |
| Sat 10 PM | · | 3 -0.8 | · | 3 -0.7 | 3 |
| Sat 9 PM | · | 4 +2.6 | 5 +4.2 | 3 +2.2 | 1 |
| Sat 8 PM | · | 5 +2.6 | 5 +2.7 | · | 2 |
| Sat 7 PM | · | 6 +2.2 | 6 +2.2 | 5 +1.7 | 4 |
| Sat 6 PM | · | 7 +0.3 | 7 +1.2 | 6 +0.1 | 6 |
| Sat 5 PM | · | 8 +0.2 | 8 -0.5 | 7 -1.6 | 8 |
▶Cambridge
full 24-hour detailCAMM2
Cambridge
full 24-hour detailEach row is a future hour. Columns show predictions made that far ahead — cells fill in right‑to‑left as the hour approaches.
| Hour | T-24h | T-18h | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Today 6 AM in 0h | · | 5 6 | 7 5 | 4 3 | 4 1 | · |
Today 7 AM in 1h | · | 6 9 | · | 6 6 | 5 4 | · |
Today 8 AM in 2h | · | 6 9 | · | 6 7 | · | |
Today 9 AM in 3h | · | 6 9 | · | 6 6 | · | |
Today 10 AM in 4h | · | 6 8 | 8 7 | 7 8 | ||
Today 11 AM in 5h | · | 6 6 | · | · | ||
Today 12 PM in 6h | · | 6 4 | 8 5 | · | ||
Today 1 PM in 7h | · | · | 8 6 | |||
Today 2 PM in 8h | 7 7 | · | 9 8 | |||
Today 3 PM in 9h | · | · | 10 10 | |||
Today 4 PM in 10h | · | 7 11 | 10 10 | |||
Today 5 PM in 11h | · | · | · | |||
Today 6 PM in 12h | · | 7 12 | · | |||
Today 7 PM in 13h | · | 6 10 | ||||
Today 8 PM in 14h | · | 6 8 | ||||
Today 9 PM in 15h | · | 5 9 | ||||
Today 10 PM in 16h | · | 6 10 | ||||
Today 11 PM in 17h | · | · | ||||
Tomorrow 12 AM in 18h | · | · | ||||
Tomorrow 1 AM in 19h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 2 AM in 20h | 6 12 | |||||
Tomorrow 3 AM in 21h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 4 AM in 22h | · | |||||
Tomorrow 5 AM in 23h | · |
Past hours — what we predicted vs what actually happened
| Hour | T-12h | T-6h | T-3h | T-1h | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today 4 AM | 6 +2.8 | 3 +0.2 | 3 0.0 | 2 -0.8 | 3 |
| Today 3 AM | 5 +4.3 | 4 +3.0 | 5 +4.2 | 2 +1.4 | 1 |
| Today 2 AM | 5 +3.3 | 3 +1.3 | · | 2 +0.3 | 2 |
| Today 1 AM | 4 +2.2 | · | 3 +0.9 | 4 +1.6 | 2 |
| Today 12 AM | 6 +1.3 | 3 -1.4 | 3 -1.7 | · | 5 |
| Sat 11 PM | 6 +2.2 | 4 -0.2 | 3 -1.0 | 4 -0.6 | 4 |
| Sat 10 PM | · | 5 +1.0 | · | 3 -0.6 | 4 |
| Sat 9 PM | · | 4 +0.1 | 5 +1.3 | 2 -2.0 | 4 |
| Sat 8 PM | · | 5 +2.5 | 5 +2.6 | · | 3 |
| Sat 7 PM | · | 5 +0.8 | 6 +1.2 | 5 +0.7 | 4 |
| Sat 6 PM | · | 7 +0.8 | 7 +1.0 | 6 -0.1 | 6 |
| Sat 5 PM | · | 7 +0.7 | 7 +0.5 | 5 -1.0 | 6 |
710
Large number= our prediction in knots · smaller number = raw NWS HRRR
Wind:<5 kt5-1010-1515-2020+
Model Accuracy
Backtest at 12h lead — our predictions vs raw NWS HRRR
| Station | Puff Cast | Raw NWS | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annapolis | 1.4 kt | 4.4 kt | 70% |
| Cambridge | 2 kt | 3 kt | 34% |
| Solomons | 1.9 kt | 2.5 kt | 25% |
| Thomas Point | 2.4 kt | 3.1 kt | 19% |